Wednesday, July 1, 2009

Job market recovery's missing ingredient ...

Abridged: Washington Post

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Despite signs that the recession gripping the nation's economy may be easing, the unemployment rate is projected to continue rising before topping out. The likelihood of severe unemployment extending into the 2010 midterm elections and beyond poses a significant political hurdle to President Obama. "Our hope would be to actually create some jobs this year," Obama said recently. Obama has defended his economic approach -- which includes the $787 billion economic stimulus plan.

So far, the White House has counseled patience even as the political debate surrounding its economic policies grows more urgent. Officials point out that job growth will not come until robust economic expansion takes hold. Still, the flagging job market is likely to stir calls for further stimulus efforts as polls show voters growing increasingly wary of federal spending in the wake of a costly series of financial- and auto-industry bailouts and amid current efforts to expand health-care coverage to the uninsured, which is estimated to cost at least $1 trillion over the next decade.

Many economists agree that the job market would be in much worse shape had the stimulus package not been enacted. And some say more stimulus measures may be needed. Since the recession took hold, the U.S. economy has lost 5.7 million jobs. In recent months, the velocity of job losses has slowed substantially, which, combined with a rising stock market and increases in consumer spending, has offered hope that a recovery is beginning to take hold.

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